Latest Polls: Mahama Leads Alan, Bawumia And Duffour
Candidates and their followers have been wondering, as the two major political parties have internal contests to choose their presidential nominees for the 2024 general elections, which candidates have the national appeal to overshadow politicians from the two parties. Former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is facing off against two of his party’s opponents: Dr. Kwabena Duffour, a former finance minister and governor of the Bank of Ghana, and Kojo Bonsu, a former mayor of the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly.
From a total of nine candidates, two have emerged as frontrunners in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary: Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Vice President, Alhaji Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia. However, MP for Assin Central, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, has, in the last four months, pushed to change the two-man race to a three-horse race. That’s had political observers wondering if Ken Agyapong’s recent surge will derail the NPP’s planned two-man ticket between Alan and Bawumia.
Election for the presidency from inside the party
Presidential primaries must be completed before candidates can face off in the general election, and Global Info Analytics (GIA), a highly regarded research firm, predicts that former President John Dramani Mahama will easily defeat his two leading challengers, Dr. Kwabena Duffour and Kojo Bonsu. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, which were won by the New Patriotic Party, GIA was at the vanguard of electoral prediction. The GIA surveys are for the period of March 31, 2023, to April 9, 2023.
That would imply that GIA was interested in knowing the likely outcomes of the two parties’ presidential primaries before the General Elections. According to data compiled by Global Data Analytics, former President John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress, is far ahead of the next two closest competitors. It appears that the NDC primary this year will follow a similar script to that of 2018. In 2018, Mr. Mahama easily won the election with 94% of the vote, leaving Prof. Joshua Alabi and the other candidates to fight for the remaining 6%.
The GIA surveys conducted in advance of the NDC primary on May 13 show Mr. Mahama with a dominating lead of 93%, followed by Dr. Duffuor with 4% and Kojo Bonsu with 3%. The GIA’s search suggests, however, that the NPP primary is wide open amongst three candidates: Alan Kyerematen, Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia, and Kennedy Ohene Agyapong. The study goes so far as to forecast that former Trade Minister Alan Kyerematen may emerge victorious with 54% of the vote in a potential NPP primary runoff.
The surveys suggest that Vice President Bawumia will narrowly defeat Alan in the NPP primaries, with Ken Agyapong placing a distant third. The NDC primary is scheduled for May 13 of this year, while the NPP will select its presidential contender in November of 2023.
Voting Schedule for 2024 (Presidential)
With 54% of the vote to NPP’s Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen’s 40% and 6% saying they’ll vote for someone else, former President Mahama is ahead in the national election. The same polls show that President Mahama has a 55 percent to 38 percent advantage over Vice President Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia, with seven percent saying they will vote for someone else but not specifying who. NPP’s Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, who is trailing Mr. Mahama 55 percent to 38 percent, has seen a surprising uptick in his approval rating. Kennedy Agyepong lagged well behind Mr. Mahama in January, with only 31% of the vote to Mr. Mahama’s 63%.
The 2020 voter registration list was used to draw a representative sample of 5,836 respondents for the Global Info Analytics study. In each region, 30% of the seats “were randomly selected and awarded the regional quota based on total voters in each constituency,” as stated by GIA. Cross-sector respondents were ultimately chosen at random from 82 constituencies spread across Ghana’s 16 regions.
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